CFB Week 10 Betting Cheat Sheet
Gamblers know where their bread is buttered – and they win. Number 1 Tennessee Volunteers they covered the points in seven of eight games, tied for the best mark in the FBS. And the betting public is once again backing the Vols in droves as they visit No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs as an outsider with 9 points.
Rocky Top brings a consensus of 85% of tickets in all bookmakers.
“Tennessee will be our biggest commitment at this stage of the college football season,” BetMGM vice president of trading Jason Scott told ESPN. On top of that, the action has been a steady flow all week, which is rare as bookies don’t usually place their bets until match day.
The Vols had similar support when they were 8.5-point underdogs against No. 6 Alabama on Oct. 15 and pulled off a straight-set win.
“The whole world was betting on them against Bama, so why not come back with it? I get it,” SuperBook CEO John Murray told ESPN. Based on my sources, the sharp bettors still didn’t have a scale, which is pretty common for bar games.
Personally, I was leaning towards UT and the points against Bama, and I’m working here again. However, mine favorite show is over 65 years old. The talk for this side and the total is all about Georgia’s top defense, as that unit will likely dictate the outcome. I firmly believe that we have to admit that this defense is not as dominant as last year’s. They have lower efficiency, allow 0.5 more yards per play and have a 5% lower sack percentage. In addition, they recorded only 10 sacks, as opposed to 26 though eight games last year.
I believe that is enough of a vulnerability for a Tennessee offense that is extremely scary at times. Quarterback Hendon Hooker, who totaled 25 touchdowns and just one interception, is now the +100 Heisman Trophy betting favorite. Beyond that, the Vols’ pace is really what makes this offense so scary. They lead the nation in fewest seconds between shots, and I believe that will allow them to score enough points to earn this one. I also believe Georgia’s offense will do enough damage.
It’s extremely rare for an undefeated team from an elite conference and in national championship contention to also put up results in the bookies’ window. Bettors usually have to pay an exorbitant tax, but the Vols are still 7-1 ATS. On Saturday, bookmakers find themselves in the rare position of backing the defending champions as home favourites.
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This seems like a classic “sandwich spot” for North Carolina, which is coming off a big win over Pittsburgh and has Wake Forest on deck. Between those high-profile opponents is a Virginia team that is as offensively challenged as any Power-5 school. The Cavaliers rank 102nd in offensive efficiency, but their 38th in defensive efficiency also lends itself to less. The Tar Heels statistically have a top-five offense, so we need them to have a lethargic and sluggish effort in this flat.
Selection: under 60 years
The Horned Frogs were extremely shaky and needed a strong second half to remain undefeated. But I think we have a focused effort against Texas Tech. TCU is fresh off the No. 1 College Football Playoff rankings and should respond in a positive way. Statistically, the Red Raiders have a better defense than many think, considering they rank 31st in efficiency. But the Horned Frogs have an explosive offense that is ranked sixth in efficiency, and I believe they will make sure of this opportunity with a convincing home win.
Pick: TCU -8
Brian Kelly will get his first taste of this rivalry with the electric atmosphere in Death Valley. However, the Tigers have shown problems against elite offenses, which is exactly what Bama has with the reigning Heisman Trophy winner at quarterback Bryce Young. Tennessee managed to score 40 points in a huge win, and I expect the Tide to have similar success. Meanwhile, Alabama has shown some warts in road games, and I think LSU will be able to generate enough offense. QB Jayden Daniels is showing more control over Kelly’s offense, with 11 touchdowns in the last two games. It’s an amazing production. He won’t post those kinds of numbers, but he should put up enough points.
Selection: Over 56.5
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