Cook Political Report Changes Arizona Senate Rating to ‘Toss’

Cook Political Report Changes Arizona Senate Rating to ‘Toss’

Cook’s Political Report he said on Thursday that he would change his rating of the Arizona Senate race from “skinny Democrat” to “toss” less than two weeks before the November midterms.

Jessica Taylor, Cook’s Senate and gubernatorial editor, said the nonpartisan election handicap is returning the race to a “toss-up” as recent private polls have shown the race between Sen. Mark Kelley (D) and Republican Blake Masters tightening despite the fact that Democrats are outnumbering Republicans in the state by a margin of 2 to 1.

Even recent public opinion polls have shown that these two surveys are within the margin of error. Survey of left-leaning data for progress published on Wednesday showed that the candidates are tied with 47 percent each.

While Taylor noted that Kelly is favored to win among all the Senate seats they rated as “toss-outs,” she said that “if Arizona is going down, a lot of states before her already are, most likely, including Nevada and maybe Georgia.” ”

“Given the disparity in spending, some Democrats are right to worry about what the race would look like if they hadn’t spent so much on Masters, again underscoring how important the fundraising advantage has been for Democrats. Kelly edged out Biden in the 2020 state by two points, but it was also a much narrower margin compared to polls two years ago,” she also noted.

Senate Republicans’ campaign arm reduced consumption in the August race, and a super PAC aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) canceled $9.6 million in state spending in September. And while former President Trump made two trips to Arizona this year, he notably left the state out of the last-minute campaign rush.

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