Notable Bets – How Blades Outdo Public Betting on Tennessee-Georgia
In betting parlance, they’re known as “Pro vs. Joe” games, and thanks to a 24-hour flurry of pundits that began Friday and continued through Saturday’s kickoff, the Tennessee-Georgia showdown has turned into the biggest of the season.
The Volunteers started the week as underdogs by around 8.5 points, and the betting public, otherwise known as “Joe’s”, couldn’t get enough of them. On Thursday, at Caesars Sportsbook, 87% of the money placed on the point spread was on Tennessee. Betting on the money line — the odds of winning a straight game — was even more clumsy. On DraftKings, 99% of the money line bets were on Tennessee.
With huge money on the Vols, the line dropped to Tennessee -7.5 on Friday, and that’s when the “Pros,” better known as professional bettors, got involved. Around 10am PT on Friday, Caesars took a $110,000 bet on Georgia -7.5. Thirty minutes later, the book received a $362,000 bet on Bulldogs -8.
“I was just waiting for the hard money to come and it just wasn’t coming. We were so screwed [on Tennessee]” recalled Joey Feazel, lead college football trader for Caesars Sportsbook. “And then on Friday pop-pop.
In less than 24 hours, money on points went from 87% in Tennessee to 68% in Georgia. And other sports betting companies have made big professional money on Georgia. The sportsbook at The Borgata in Atlantic City also announced that it took a $200,000 bet on the Bulldogs around the same time as Caesars on Friday.
Pro action continued on Saturday, taking the line to even Georgia -10 at some bookies early on. The game ended up being the biggest bet of the college football season at Caesars.
“It was absolutely a Pros vs. Joe situation,” said John Murray, CEO of SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas. “We saw some of our sharpest groups favored on Friday and early Saturday.”
Georgia won and covered the spread in an impressive 27-13 victory.
“The sharps were right,” said Adam Pullen, associate director of trading for Caesars Sportsbook.
Caesars Sportsbook called Sunday’s results “solid.” The big play for the book was that the New York Jets upset the Buffalo Bills 20-17 as 10.5 point underdogs.
“Anytime you have a big favorite going down, it kills all the money, all the teasers, it’s usually a good start,” Pullen said of the Jets’ win. “Obviously, having Super Bowl favorites [Bills] come down, made it even bigger.”
The Jets’ win was the second-largest loss of the season, behind only the Carolina Panthers’ 13-point victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The underdogs were 7-3-2 against the spread this week, entering Monday night’s Baltimore Ravens-New Orleans Saints game. Underdogs have covered the spread in 59.2% of games this season.
The Unders are 8-4 in Week 9, heading into Monday Night Football. Just over 58% of games have gone below the total, the highest Week 9 punt percentage of any season since 1991, according to ESPN Stats & Info.
The largest reported bets at Caesars Sportsbook
$500,000 on Patriots -5.5 vs. Colts (win)
$325,000 on Saints +3 (-130) vs. Ravens (TBD)
$300,000 on Vikings -3 (-120) vs. commanders (push)
$275,000 on Jets +12 vs. Bills (win)
Not all bookies had successful Sundays, which shows how results can vary from book to book.
“Sunday was disappointing,” SuperBook’s Murray told ESPN. “The rams [straight-up] ended up being our biggest need on the day, and we had a home player [VIP customer] he beat us up pretty good in Seattle.”
The Rams surrendered a last-second touchdown in a 16-13 loss to the Buccaneers, and the Seahawks upset the Arizona Cardinals 31-21 as 2.5-point underdogs.
“The volume in the NFL this week wasn’t great anyway,” Murray added. “The last two NFL cards have been brutal. Next week looks better. Hopefully the volume will come back. We can’t complain, because we had a great day on Saturday.”
Heisman Update: After Georgia’s big win over Tennessee, Bulldogs quarterback Stetson Bennett went from 100-1 to 25-1 to win the Heisman Trophy at BetMGM. Ohio State quarterback CJ Stroud is the favorite at +150, followed by Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker (+175). Hooker was the even-money favorite last week.
Shares of LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels on Mojo, a platform that allows buyers to buy and sell shares of players’ professional statistical achievements, rose 8.5%, from $4.44 to $4.88, after the Tigers upset Alabama on Saturday .
Notable opening lines [via Circa Sports] LSU -2, 65.5 at Arkansas Nebraska at Michigan -29, 49.5 Alabama -12, 66.5 at Ole Miss Washington at Oregon -12, 70.5 Georgia -16, 50.5 at Mississippi State TCU at Texas -7, 66.5
#Notable #Bets #Blades #Outdo #Public #Betting #TennesseeGeorgia