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Sabato makes final calls to control House, Senate, gubernatorial races

Sabato makes final calls to control House, Senate, gubernatorial races

Another day before mid-term electionspolitical scientist and analyst Larry Sabato gave his latest prediction on which party will win the House, US Senate and gubernatorial races.

Sabat’s analysis, “Final Ratings for the 2022 Election, was published Monday in his newsletter, “Saturday’s Crystal Ball.”

FILE: A voter casts a ballot in a secure ballot box at the Maricopa County Tabulation and Election Center in Phoenix, Nov. 1, 2022.

FILE: A voter casts a ballot in a secure ballot box at the Maricopa County Tabulation and Election Center in Phoenix, Nov. 1, 2022.
(AP Photo/Matt York, File)

In short, Sabato predicts that Republicans will win the Senate, 51-49, with a net gain of one spot. His last House election went for the Republicans, 237-198, giving him a 24-seat gain. In the gubernatorial race, Sabato predicts Republicans will win 29-21, picking up one governor’s seat.

Republicans, Sabato notes, have honed their core message of fixing the economy and curbing inflation as the president’s approval ratings have dipped into the low 40s.

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Democrats may have a chance to cushion some of their losses, he says, with GOP candidates struggling in certain Senate, gubernatorial and House races, as well as the Supreme Court’s unpopular decision to overturn Roe v. Wade and the lingering influence of former President Donald Trump.

Such factors, he argues, will make this a “good, but not necessarily great” night for Republicans. The conditions ultimately make these midterm elections fairly common in which the president’s party suffers losses. Only twice in the past few decades – in 1998 and 2002 – has the president’s party fared well.

A get-out-the-vote sign is seen in front of Democratic Senate candidate Raphael Warnock (D-GA) at a Get Out rally at the Bearfoot Tavern on November 7, 2022 in Macon, Georgia.

A get-out-the-vote sign is seen in front of Democratic Senate candidate Raphael Warnock (D-GA) at a Get Out rally at the Bearfoot Tavern on November 7, 2022 in Macon, Georgia.
(Photo by Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)

Sabato is careful to qualify so that some races, especially in the Senate, remain out. Senate races in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania, he says, “can all be accurately described as jump balls.”

He notes that the Senate race likely won’t be decided Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning. Arizona, for example, usually takes several days to complete its count. Georgia, between GOP candidate Herschel Walker and Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock, has the possibility of a runoff.

Sabato also predicted it would take longer to count “heavily Democratic” absentee ballots in Pennsylvania, adding to the “red mirage” that made GOP candidate Mehmet Oz’s margin look large early.

Even if things go smoothly, it may be days or weeks before the results are known in several key races. In ways big and small, the 2022 midterms will help shape the 2024 election.

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A bad night for Democrats could undermine Biden’s rationale for a second term. And Trump would almost certainly use the big Republican wins as evidence of his political strength ahead of a third potential run for the White House.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.



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