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Why New Hampshire could spring a surprise for the Senate

Why New Hampshire could spring a surprise for the Senate



CNN

Political pundits have been saying for weeks that the race for control of the Senate will go down in three or four states: Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania, with Arizona sometimes thrown in. But is that list too limited?

Political history—and the late-race spending dispute—suggests we should broaden our focus. Republicans have a real chance to unseat a Democratic senator. Maggie Hassan headquarters in New Hampshire.

The background for the race is simple. In 2016, Hassan won by 0.1 points. This year, Democrats spent the money during the Republican primaries to successfully win over their favorite opponent, Don Bolduc, nominated. He has went back and forth about whether President Joe Biden legitimately won the 2020 election.

Early opinion polls after the primaries showed Hasan as the clear favorite to retain his seat. A super PAC aligned with GOP leader Mitch McConnell, he continued to withdraw his advertisement out of the race.

But in the last 10 days, the Senate Republicans’ campaign arm started investing money back to.

What exactly is going on?

A number of pollsters who do not meet CNN’s publication standards have released results that indicate a close race, or even a Republican advantage. The close affair, however, matches what campaigners see in the state.

New Hampshire is exactly the kind of place you might expect Republicans to be competitive, given the polls we’ve seen nationally. A CNN/SSRS poll released this week put Republicans ahead by four points on the generic congressional ballot. That’s an 8-point shift toward Republicans from the final 2020 presidential tally.

An 8-point shift in New Hampshire from the 2020 result would put the spot in play. Democrats won the 2020 presidential election by seven points in New Hampshire.

The competitiveness of the New Hampshire Senate race matches what we see in other congressional races in New York and New England — about At stake are 10 seats in the House of Representatives held by Democrats.

In fact, it would be strange if the New Hampshire Senate race wasn’t competitive, given all of this data.

It’s somewhat unclear how a Republican victory in New Hampshire would affect the Senate map.

One view is that New Hampshire would only be won by the Republicans if it were a nationwide special election. He won’t get it if a nationwide election is close.

Another view is that the polling averages in Arizona (where most polls have Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly) and New Hampshire look pretty similar. The states are in different parts of the country and demographically different. Sometimes polling errors are concentrated regionally and demographically. It’s possible that a voting error that affects New Hampshire won’t affect Arizona in the same way. And in that case, the Republicans might win New Hampshire, but not Arizona.

Either way, New Hampshire could give us an early guide to how the Senate race is going. There isn’t much early voting or absentee voting in the state, unlike many other Senate seats. We should know relatively early on election night what the vote looks like.

Sure, New Hampshire can occasionally march to the beat of its own drum. Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen retained her seat in 2014, even as Republicans easily flipped the Senate.

How the Granite State will vote this year — compared to the nation as a whole — won’t be known until at least a few days after Nov. 8 and all the votes are counted. Republicans, however, welcome the idea that a seat that seemed lost months ago is on the radar three days before Election Day.



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